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1. Asia-Oceania Macroeconomies and Construction Markets
(1) Asia-Oceania Macroeconomies
Recovery Delayed Past FY2004
Exports from the Asian countries slowed due to the rapid increase in SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) cases spreaded in Asia since the middle of March 2003. Economic recovery was thwarted despite the signs of recovery in FY2002. The second half of 2003 is expected to move Asian economies further toward a path of recovery led by an increase in exports resulting from a resurgent U.S. economy and increased IT investment. Corporate earnings rebounded somewhat but personal consumption remained sluggish due to continued high unemployment and flat incomes.
South Korea in particular is expected to fall significantly short of its initial target of 5% growth for the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). China's economy remained robust, with personal consumption recovering rapidly as concerns about the SARS epidemic eased. According to official government figures, the Chinese economy grew by 9.1% in 2003. The economy in Thailand was relatively unaffected by the SARS epidemic, and personal consumption remained high. Thailand's exports to other ASEAN nations and China increased. Furthermore, its exports are expected to continue rising as a result of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) signed with other nations.
Australia downgraded its growth forecast for 2003 due to poor crop production resulting from the continuing drought conditions that have affected the country since 2002, but the Australian economy continues to grow at a rate of approximately 3%. However, the Australian construction market is faced with rapidly rising housing prices and a lack of governmental action. New Zealand is faced with a similar situation in which its construction market is on the verge of overheating.
Table1: GDP Growth by Nation
|
Country /Area |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
|
China |
7.8 |
7.1 |
8.0 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
9.1 |
over7.0 |
|
Hong Kong |
-4.7 |
-3.1 |
10.5 |
0.9 |
-0.3 |
2.0 |
4.0 |
|
Taiwan |
4.6 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
-2.2 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
- |
|
India |
5.0 |
9.0 |
4.4 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
7.4 |
|
Indonesia |
-13.6 |
0.8 |
4.8 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
|
Japan |
-0.7 |
0.9 |
3.0 |
-1.2 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
|
Korea |
-6.7 |
10.9 |
9.3 |
3.0 |
6.3 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
|
Malaysia |
-7.4 |
5.8 |
8.5 |
0.4 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
5.4 |
|
Phillipines |
-0.6 |
3.4 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
|
Singapore |
-0.9 |
6.4 |
9.4 |
-2.4 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
3.0~5.0 |
|
Sri Lanka |
4.7 |
4.3 |
6.0 |
-1.4 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
|
Vietnam |
5.8 |
4.8 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
8.0 |
|
Thailand |
-10.5 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
1.9 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
6.3~7.3 |
|
Australia |
5.4 |
4.1 |
1.3 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
2.8 |
- |
|
New Zealand |
2.0 |
0.4 |
4.9 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
4.3 |
- |
Note) 1. The 2003 growth rate adopts an announcement value, when a country report differs from an announcement.
2. For Hong Kong, India, Japan and Malaysia, the 9th Asia Construct Conference Data was used for growth rate.
Other countries and areas are based on a source below.
Korea: Government forecast, Phillipines: Asia Development Bank's forecast,
(2) Construction Investment in Asian Nations
Continued Growth Forecasted for Construction Markets in Asia
Construction investment
among all Asian nations was estimated at US$933.6 billion in 2002. Excluding
The increasing adoption of Free Trade Agreements among Asian nations is expected to provide significant benefits to the Asian region in terms of better procurement of construction materials, hiring of qualified workers, and allowing investment to move freely between Asian nations.
Table 2: 2002 Construction Investment by Nation
|
Country/Area |
2002 GDP |
Construction
Investment |
Construction Investment Rate to GDP(%) |
Population |
Per Capita Construction
Investment |
|
|
12,656 |
2,260 |
17.9 |
1,284,304 |
176 |
|
|
1,615 |
135 |
8.4 |
7,303 |
1,852 |
|
|
2,815 |
327 |
11.6 |
22,548 |
1,452 |
|
|
4,613 |
695 |
15.1 |
1,055,000 |
66 |
|
|
1,729 |
126 |
7.3 |
228,438 |
55 |
|
|
39,796 |
4,506 |
11.3 |
127,286 |
3,540 |
|
|
4,767 |
763 |
16.0 |
47,639 |
1,603 |
|
|
945 |
125 |
13.3 |
22,662 |
553 |
|
Phillipines |
780 |
54 |
7.0 |
84,526 |
64 |
|
|
869 |
126 |
14.5 |
4,453 |
2,839 |
|
|
162 |
17 |
10.3 |
19,007 |
88 |
|
|
301 |
40 |
13.2 |
79,710 |
50 |
|
|
1,265 |
161 |
12.7 |
62,310 |
258 |
|
Summary |
72,313 |
9,336 |
12.9 |
3,045,186 |
307 |
|
excluding |
32,517 |
4,830 |
14.9 |
2,917,900 |
166 |
|
|
|||||
|
|
4,245 |
- |
- |
19,663 |
- |
|
|
736 |
54 |
7.4 |
3,942 |
1,377 |
*GDP,Construction Investment: at current prices
References: The 9th
Notice: For the construction investment values, the most recent data is adopted;
being 2000 for Philippine,
and 1998 for
For
Alternative to the construction investment value.
For
2. Country Reports
Note: GDP growth rates and construction investment data quoted in the following country reports are based on actual data.
Macroeconomic Review and Overview
After the burst of Japanese bubble
economy in the 90's, the Japanese economy has grown at a slower pace than other
economies. In 1996, the Japanese government raised the national consumption tax
rate and reduced spending on public projects as part of structural reforms
aimed at improving the nation¡Çs public finances. However, the Japanese economy
and its public finances took a further downturn due to the Japanese banking
crisis in 1997 and the Asian economic crisis that occurred from 1997 to 1998.
Construction investment in
The most pressing issue for the
Japanese government is the deflationary state of the Japanese economy. The
actual GDP is forecasted to grow at a rate of 2% during FY2003, but the nominal
GDP is expected to continue shrinking.
Economic and Public Finance Strategies
During the 90's, the Japanese
government lowered tax rates and reduced spending on public projects, although
it increased the national consumption tax rate. In this decade, the Japanese
government has undertaken numerous strategies aimed at achieving structural
reform and deregulation without deepening its public debt. In spite of these
efforts, long-term government debt far outweighs the national GDP.
public works, the national
government is attempting to improve the efficiency of public works projects by
introducing private capital and transferring funds and decision-making
authority to local governments.
Construction Industry
Private construction investment in
Many private sector firms continue to be weighed down with excessive debt, and private construction investment is expected to remain depressed for the foreseeable future. Japanese firms must diversify or pursue collaboration and mergers with other firms in order to ensure their future survival.
The Indonesian government is moving away from a centralized system of decision-making in favor of decision-making at the regional level.
The construction industry has
played an important role in terms of the economic, social and cultural
development of
The Indonesian government has taken several steps to revitalize the construction industry. The government enacted Construction Service Law No. 18 in 1999 and Government Procurement Policy No. 80 in 2003 in an attempt to increase the competitiveness of the Indonesian construction industry both domestically and abroad. The Indonesian government also created the Construction Service Development Board (CSDB) in order to boost competitiveness in the construction sector, taking its cue from CIDB Malaysia. The CSDB conducts research, provides skills training, and regulates licensing within the construction industry. It also provides protection for workers in the construction industry and for foreign construction firms.
The Indonesian construction industry continues to suffer from a shortage of capital and skilled workers. In addition, foreign-owned firms control the Indonesian construction market. In spite of these obstacles, several Indonesian firms have successfully bid on road and hotel projects in ASEAN member nations. Indonesian firms are also involved in developing new construction technology.
Many Indonesian construction firms are faced with a significant gap in capital funds and technology when compared with foreign-owned construction firms. However, domestic construction firms are actively looking for opportunities to collaborate with foreign business partners in order to better position themselves for the future.
The Indonesian government is
interested in promoting harmonization of construction skills throughout
The small island nation of
Macroeconomic Review and Outlook
Challenges and Future Outlook for the Construction Industry
As the construction
market in
Until now, the nation¡Çs
Building Act has been kept relatively unregulated based on a strict government
policy of deregulation. Unfortunately, the government¡Çs hands-off policy has
led to numerous problems with the construction quality in
In 2002, the
During the 80's, the
The Building Research Association
of New Zealand Incorporated (BRANZ Inc.) is the leading research body for the
The construction sector in
Prior to the Asian currency crisis
in 1997, the construction sector in
The Malaysian government has established the Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) to serve as a government statutory body for regulating the nation¡Çs construction industry. CIDB Malaysia is also a participant of the AsiaConstruct Conference. Under CIDB regulations, any contractor undertaking construction work valued at over RM 500,000 per contract must register with CIDB. In 2002, a total of 49,437 contractors were registered with CIDB, which grew to 55,744 contractors by June 2003. In 2002, 5,026 contracts were registered with CIDB, while 1,309 contracts were registered in the six months covering January to June 2003. Infrastructure and non-residential construction accounted for the majority of construction work, while maintenance construction accounted for only a small proportion of all construction work.
In the Malaysian system, the ratio of local and foreign capital affects how construction firms are treated. Firms with foreign equity not exceeding 30% are treated as Malaysian-owned firms, while firms with over 30% foreign equity are treated as foreign-owned firms, which restricts the types of projects they can participate in. Firms with foreign equity originating from ASEAN countries are allowed up to 45% foreign equity. In 2001 and 2002, the percentage of foreign-owned construction firms remained at 4%, and had grown to 9% by September 2003.
Sri Lanka Country Report
Macroeconomic Review and Outlook
During 2001, all sectors except for
the construction sector recorded minus growth for the first time since 1984.
However, the Sri Lankan economy improved significantly in 2002 as a result of
economic reforms implemented by the national government. The upturn in the Sri
Lankan economy was further aided by the cessation of civil hostilities and the
positive performance of the services sector spurred by healthy domestic demand.
In 2002, the construction sector in
The Sri Lankan economy continuously
has problems. However, the
Construction Industry
The construction sector in 2002 accounted for 7.2% of the national GDP. Domestic fixed capital accounted for over 40% of the national GDP, with the construction sector directly responsible for employing 300,000 workers and indirectly employing a further one million workers. However, the importance of the construction industry has been overlooked as yet. Currently, Sri Lankan government organizations and industry groups are engaged in efforts to expand the construction market and provide more construction-related training, as well as improve the quality of construction.
The Sri Lankan government has opened up its construction market to global competition, but its construction firms continue to suffer from a lack of competitiveness that has resulted in preferential treatment for domestic construction firms.
Macroeconomic Review and Outlook
In the first half of 2003, the
Construction Industry
As a characteristic of the
construction industry, construction investment is composed of 49% residential
construction, 29% civil engineering construction and 22% non-residential
construction. And the construction sector accounted for 4.85% of
Construction investment in
In 2003, residential investment declined by 11.5%, although non-residential construction investment rose significantly during the same period. However, civil engineering investment declined to its lowest level since 2001.
Construction sector employment fell
by 5% in 2003, while the number of site workers employed by the construction
sector fell sharply by 20%. Construction sector wages have tumbled, with the
average monthly wage estimated at US$1,408 in 2002. Productivity in the
construction sector is lower than the manufacturing sector, and is about half
that of services sector. On average, labor costs account for approximately 25%
of standard construction, compared with a rate of 20% in
The cost of construction materials dropped by 12% in 2001, but rose by 7% from 2002 to the 1st quarter of 2003. The cost of residential construction was estimated at US$1,000 per square meter, while commercial office construction was estimated at US$1,200 per square meter. Industrial construction was estimated at US$600 per square meter and five-star hotel construction at US$2,000 per square meter.
The
Macroeconomic Review and Outlook
The South Korean GDP has grown since the Asian currency crisis of 1997. The national GDP in 2002 was estimated at US$477.6 billion, which was significantly higher than the 1998 national GDP of US$317.7 billion. The GDP growth rate has also picked up since 1997, and the economy appears to be one the verge of a healthy recovery.
Construction Industry
The construction industry in
Residential construction investment
in
In 1970, the construction sector employed just 280,000 workers, or 2.9% of all workers. Employment in the construction sector has continued to rise since that time, and in 2002 the construction industry employed over 1.7 million workers, or 7.8% of all workers. Currently, over 1.8 million workers are employed in the construction sector.
The South Korean government is presently enforcing a registration system for the construction industry based on amendments to the Framework Act that came into effect in 1996. Under the South Korean registration system, construction firms must register as either a general contractor or specialty contractor. General contractors must register with the Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT), while specialty contractors are required to register with local authorities. Registration under either category requires that construction firms meet specific criteria relating to technology, capital funding, facilities, and equipment. The registration system enables project managers to better select an appropriate construction firm for their needs. Subcontracting work is also regulated under this system.
The South Korean government has
only recently begun to open up the construction market, although the number of
tenders from foreign construction firms has increased. Foreign construction
firms have already undertaken work on several projects including the railway
connecting
Macroeconomic Review and Outlook
The government of
In recent years, the Australian economy has been notable for its low work productivity measured against the national GDP. The manufacturing sector accounts for 13% of the national GDP, followed by the services sector at 12.4% and the construction industry at 5.5%. During the last 25 years, the manufacturing sector has grown at a slower rate than the average for all sectors, and has been outperformed by the construction industry.
Housing prices in
The Australian government has taken little action to protect the economy beyond lowering interest rates to prevent inflation. In general, the national government has taken a passive role in responding to global economic trends, which does not bode well in terms of maintaining continued growth for the Australian economy.
Construction Industry
The Australian government has recently implemented various legislative changes that have dramatically reduced the number of industry associations and labor unions in the construction sector. These changes have effectively served to reduce the friction between labor and management. In addition, the government has made changes to the registration system for construction firms, which has resulted in an increase in the number of registered construction firms from 100,000 firms to 194,000 firms. Only 2% of all construction firms employ more than 100 persons.
Government regulation of the construction industry is aimed at increasing productivity, but has failed to produce significant productivity gains due to the severe competitive environment faced by construction firms and an already high rate of productivity in the sector. In addition, the government has failed to provide government incentives for firms to increase their productivity. The Australian government has also been less than proactive in terms of funding R&D for the construction industry. Less than 2% of the nation¡Çs total R&D budget is directed at the construction sector, which amounts to no more than 0.2% of revenue generated by the construction sector. The construction industry in Australia also suffers from high worker turnover occurring in a four- to five-year cycle, which further hurts productivity. Currently, the Australian government is looking at ways to improve construction-related training and change its licensing system for the construction industry.
The Australian government also must act to implement environmental conservation measures. It has failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and has not taken steps to reduce the nation¡Çs CO2 production.
Australia offers broad market access to foreign firms, as long as firms comply with the nation¡Çs regulatory environment and licensing requirements. In recent years, several foreign firms have entered the construction market through acquisitions of Australian firms.
Presentation on Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (CRC CI)
Speaker: Carole Green, Business Manager, CRC CI
Australia¡Çs Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) system comprises numerous research organizations established and funded through the partnership of the government, industry associations, and private sector firms. The CRCs conduct research both domestically and abroad.
During the late nineties, the Australian government implemented structural reforms aimed at various sectors of the economy. The CRC system was established as part of this effort in order to draft and implement action plans for structural reform. Currently, Australia has approximately 70 CRCs covering a wide range of industries. The Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (CRC CI) is the only CRC devoted to the construction industry. As part of its role in helping to bring structural reform to the construction industry, the CRC CI provides construction-related training and promotes technology transfer.
The CRC CI is focused on
three areas: long-term technology research; collaboration between government,
academia and industry; and the development of tools, technologies, and
management systems that contribute to the sustained profitability of the
construction industry. Research is conducted through the collaborative efforts
of universities, private sector organizations, and government at both the
federal and state level. Among its many projects, the CRC CI is conducting
research aimed at
revising the Building Code of Australia.
¡¡Research in the construction industry generally comprises long-term research that requires interdisciplinary involvement or short-term research conducted between the private sector and the government. The CRC CI, which mainly conducts mid-term research, fills the gap between these two poles by providing a third option for private sector firms that may lack the resources to conduct their own research, thereby enabling research to be conducted efficiently with the assistance of government funding.
¡¡Research conducted by the CRC CI is focused on three areas consisting of business and industry development, sustainable built assets, and delivery and management of built assets. All research is managed using a common IT platform, so that information can be shared to improve efficiency and prevent overlapping research. The CRC CI is strictly an R&D organization and does not produce forecasts regarding future construction investment.